China could invade Taiwan within the next 18 months, current and former officials familiar with U.S. and allied intelligence told Fox News, suggesting a particularly "dangerous" window between the meeting of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party this November and the next U.S. presidential election in 2024.
Two former senior officials told Fox News that the intelligence suggests China sees the potential opportunity for an amphibious assault and military invasion of Taiwan in that time frame.
"We have always had and always been aware that China has an ever-present, ever-evolving plan for an amphibious assault and military invasion of Taiwan. If they are not successful in reunifying politically, then they will do so with force," one former senior intelligence official familiar with U.S. intelligence, and who has discussed intelligence belonging to a U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific, told Fox News.
"What is different now is, we have intelligence that this has gone from an indefinite, nebulous scenario, to a belief that there is a window of opportunity in the next 18 months," the official continued. "I don’t think that’s a coincidence that window of opportunity is within a Biden administration."
A former senior Trump administration official told Fox News House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is being used as a "pretext" for increased Chinese aggression around Taiwan, but said it is "not the real cause of it," and warned that the "Davidson Window" is "closing."
Former commander of American forces in the Indo-Pacific Adm. Philip Davison testified last year that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years—by 2027.
"The window is now between the Party Congress and the next U.S. presidential election," the official said noting that window could close by January 2025—at the end of the presidential transition period. "I think we are in a very dangerous two-year window right now."
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is expected to take place in November, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected.
A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told Fox News that the United States "will not seek and does not want a crisis."
"We are prepared to manage what Beijing chooses to do. We will not engage in saber-rattling, and we're not looking to escalate," the NSC spokesperson told Fox News. "At the same time, we're going to be steady and resolute. We will not be deterred from operating in the seas and skies of the Western Pacific as we have done for decades."
The spokesperson added that the United States "will continue to support Taiwan, consistent with our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, and defend a free and open Indo-Pacific."
"We're communicating closely with our allies and partners. And we are maintaining open lines of communication Beijing," the spokesperson said. "We will keep doing what we are doing -- supporting cross-Strait peace and stability."
However, the former senior Trump administration official told Fox News that "the likelihood of invasion has increased dramatically with China perceiving the United States is in a weakened position," pointing to the Biden administration’s "surrender" of Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted "in only half-measure sanctions being put on the Russian Federation."
The official also said Xi has been emboldened by U.S. "domestic problems," including crime in cities across the nation, "the lack of control" at the Southern border, and the "failures" of the Biden administration’s energy policy.
The official stressed that the invasion could happen before the inauguration of the next president in 2025, saying China fears the election of "another leader that could return to a more robust, ‘peace through strength’ foreign policy and stronger domestic policies."
With regard to criticisms of the current administration's foreign policy and its withdrawal from Afghanistan, a Biden administration official told Fox News that China "would love nothing more than for the U.S. government to still be bogged down in a 20-year war, still committing billions of dollars, U.S. troops, and have our military focused on another country's civil war.
"By being able to withdraw our forces from Afghanistan, we have been able to reposition them and refocus our efforts to other areas of the world," the official said. The official added that the Biden administration "freed up resources" and said leaving Afghanistan put the United States "in a much better position on the geopolitical stage when it comes to our strategic competition with China or with any other important issues around the world."
However, during an interview with Fox News Wednesday, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck said the United States "has failed to deter adversaries within the last 18 months."
"If anything, the United States has been deterred from forcefully supporting its partners and allies worldwide," Klinck said, adding that he has viewed 2024 as a "particularly dangerous year."
"The reason is because it is not only the election in the United States, but it is also the presidential election in Taiwan," Klinck said, stressing that he believes the People’s Liberation Army "will move against Taiwan when the Chinese Communist Party tells it to, regardless of timing."
"I view 2024 as being dangerous because I believe the CCP, particularly President Xi Jinping, will see it as a potential window of opportunity because of the U.S. election, and the fact that he probably perceives that the United States is going to shy away from an international crisis during a presidential election," he told Fox News.
A lot more at https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china-could-invade-taiwan-within-next-18-months-before-next-us-presidential-election-sources
Taiwan Doubts China’s Xi Will Have the Ability to Invade by 2027
• PLA will lack key amphibious landing skills, official says
• US has more urgency than Taipei on boosting defense, he adds
Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to have the capability to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027, according to a top Taiwanese security official, casting doubts on the progress of Beijing’s military modernization plans.
Taiwan will continue to delay the People’s Liberation Army’s invasion timetable by strengthening its defense capabilities, Wellington Koo, the head of the island’s National Security Council, said Monday at a briefing in Taipei.
“I don’t think it will happen in the near future or at least within one to two years,” Koo said of a Chinese invasion. “If China needs to carry out amphibious landing operations to take Taiwan, I don’t think it will have such capabilities by 2027.”
Koo declined to pinpoint when an attack could happen, saying only that the island that China claims as its own doesn’t see Beijing making invasion preparations. Beijing is already facing uncertainty next year from its own economic downturn, while the world must also deal with the U.S. election, and wars in Europe and the Middle East, he added.
Xi is seeking to build a “world-class force” by 2027, a deadline that coincides with the 100th anniversary of the PLA. Mark Milley, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last year Beijing’s military won’t be ready to invade Taiwan for “some time.” His successor, Charles Q. Brown Jr., said last week he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily.
Taiwan is separated from China by more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) of ocean, and its rugged coastline would make an amphibious invasion challenging. While China has the world’s largest navy by number of warships, its forces are largely untested.
Koo said Taiwan would use mobile weapons such as anti-ship missiles, HIMARS rocket systems, drones and Javelin anti-tank systems to make China’s landing operations more difficult in the event of an invasion. The U.S. will bring forward a HIMARS shipment by one year to 2026.
Earlier this month, Koo said the U.S. government is taking steps to speed up the delivery of American weapons systems to Taiwan that have been delayed by factors including shipments to Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to touch on Taiwan when he meets with Xi this week at a leaders’ summit in San Francisco. Biden has repeatedly vowed to defend Taiwan from any Chinese invasion, in comments that have angered Beijing and brought new uncertainty to Washington’s longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” over the island.
Koo said Taipei and the U.S. are discussing a possible meeting between Biden and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. founder Morris Chang at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where he is Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s special envoy. At last year’s conference, Chang had a brief chat with Xi that didn’t touch on Taiwan Strait tensions.
Taiwan’s security cooperation with the U.S. remains close, he said, with Washington pushing Taipei on defense reform, whole-society resilience and the construction of asymmetric warfare capabilities.
“The U.S. has a stronger sense of urgency than Taiwan,” Koo said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/taiwan-doubts-china-s-xi-will-have-the-ability-to-invade-by-2027
Xi says China must strengthen training for 'actual combat'
BEIJING: China's President Xi Jinping called on the country's armed forces to "strengthen military training oriented towards actual combat", state media reported on Wednesday (Apr 12), after Beijing conducted military drills intended to intimidate Taiwan.
Xi's comments, made on a naval inspection trip on Tuesday, come amid heightened tension in the region after the show of force by Beijing, which sees self-ruled Taiwan as its territory.
China on Monday concluded three days of military drills launched in response to a visit last week by Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States, where she met a bipartisan group of lawmakers.
Xi on Tuesday told the People's Liberation Army's Southern Theater Command Navy that the military must "resolutely defend China's territorial sovereignty and maritime interests, and strive to protect overall peripheral stability", state broadcaster CCTV reported.
Beijing is also enraged by a plan for US forces to use a growing number of bases in the Philippines, including one near Taiwan.
The United States and the Philippines are holding their largest-ever joint military drills this week, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken committing to "standing with the Philippines against any intimidation or coercion, including in the South China Sea".
Xi added on Tuesday that China must be "innovative in its concepts and methods of combat".
DISPUTED WATERS
Beijing views democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to take it one day, stepping up its rhetoric and military activity around the island in recent years.
Washington has been deliberately ambiguous on whether it would defend Taiwan militarily.
But for decades it has sold weapons to Taipei to help ensure its self-defence, and offered political support.
At the same time, China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea - a strategic waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade pass annually - despite an international court ruling that the assertion has no legal basis.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei all have overlapping claims in the sea, while the United States sends naval vessels through it to assert freedom of navigation in international waters.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/xi-jinping-says-china-must-strengthen-training-actual-combat-3412771
China proffers 'peaceful reunification', Taiwan says respect our democracy
BEIJING/TAIPEI: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan on Sunday (Mar 5) as well as resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence, with Taipei responding that Beijing should respect the Taiwanese people's commitment to democracy and freedom.
China has increased its military activity near the island over the past three years, responding to what it calls "collusion" between Taipei and Washington, Taiwan's main international backer and arms supplier.
In August, China staged war games around Taiwan in response to a visit to Taipei by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Speaking at the opening of the annual meeting of China's parliament, Li said Beijing stands by the "one China" principle, which states that Taiwan is part of China, though did not directly threaten military action.
The government should implement the party's policy for "resolving the Taiwan question" and "take resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence and promote reunification", he told the roughly 3,000 delegates at Beijing's enormous Great Hall of the People.
"We should promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance the process of China's peaceful reunification."
Most people in Taiwan have shown no interest in being ruled by China, which has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
Li, in separate comments on defence, said the armed forces should boost combat preparedness, though did not mention Taiwan within that context.
Taiwan's China-policymaking Mainland Affairs Council responded to what it called Li's "reaffirmation" of China's Taiwan policy by saying Beijing should face up to the reality that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are "not subordinate to each other".
China should "respect the Taiwanese people's commitment to the core concepts of holding fast to the sovereignty, democracy and freedom of the Republic of China", it said, using Taiwan's formal name.
China should deal with cross-strait affairs pragmatically in a rational, equal and mutually respectful manner, so as to create conditions for healthy interactions, it added.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly offered talks with China, which have been rebuffed as Beijing believes her to be a separatist.
Taiwan's government strongly disputes Beijing's sovereignty claims, and says only the island's 23 million people can decide their future.
Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-taiwan-peaceful-reunification-respect-democracy-li-keqiang-parliament-defence-military-3325826
China-Taiwan: Beijing speeding up plans for unification, Blinken says
China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said.
Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable, he said.
In Sunday's speech opening the Communist party Congress in Beijing, President Xi Jinping refused to rule out using force to unify with Taiwan.
China sees the self-ruled island as a part of its territory, but Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the mainland.
Last month US President Joe Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack - despite the official US policy of ambiguity on the issue.
Speaking at an event at Stanford University on Tuesday with previous Secretary Condoleezza Rice, Mr Blinken said that if Beijing could not achieve unification by peaceful means it would use coercion and possibly force.
"That is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions," he said.
Mr Blinken added that the US would honour its commitments to Taiwan and support the island's ability to defend itself.
Washington has always walked a diplomatic tightrope over the issue of Taiwan and China.
Its official policy does not commit to military action on Taiwan - but US President Biden has seemingly gone against this stance by repeatedly emphasizing that Washington would defend Taiwan.
Secretary Blinken's comments come as China is holding a twice-in-a-decade party congress, in which President Xi is widely expected to be elected to a historic third theme in office.
In his opening remarks on Sunday, Mr Xi insisted that "complete reunification of our country must and will be realised".
"We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force," he said.
Tensions between US and China have been high in recent months, especially after a visit to Taipei by US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi.
China conducted large-scale military exercises in response to Ms Pelosi's visit, something Taiwan condemned as "highly provocative".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63296105
China will not invade Taiwan within the next five years, Intel CEO predicts
The U.S. and China have become locked in a public spat over semiconductors and their importance to national security, with some worried that China could invade Taiwan over the matter.
However, Intel's Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger said he doesn't think that will happen in the next five years, according to Citi analyst Christopher Danely, who attended an investment dinner with Gelsinger.
Taiwan is home to one of the world's largest semiconductor foundries, Taiwan Semiconductor, which produces chips for a number of clients, including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple and others.
Last month, Taiwan Semiconductor Chairman Mark Liu told CNN that "nobody can control [Taiwan Semiconductor] by force," adding that it would be "nonoperable" if it were taken by military force or invasion due to its "sophisticated manufacturing facilities."
Tensions between the U.S. and China have increased in recent weeks as several U.S. lawmakers and politicians have visited Taiwan, despite the U.S.'s longstanding "One China" policy.
Last month, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with several leaders from Taiwan's semiconductor industry, including Taiwan Semiconductor's Liu.
Other U.S. lawmakers have also gone to Taiwan, including Arizona governor Doug Ducey, who said Taiwan Semiconductor was making "excellent" progress on its new plant in his state.
In addition to his comments about China and Taiwan, Intel's Gelsinger also noted that it is likely that the recently passed CHIPs Act will be extended past five years in an effort to restrict Chinese access to "sensitive technologies."
Intel is seen by some on Wall Street as the biggest beneficiary of the bipartisan legislation, which provided $52B in funding for the industry.
The Biden administration is reportedly weighing new regulations on limiting China's access to advanced semiconductors, including curbing the sale of certain chipmaking equipment.
Earlier this month, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices both said they had received warnings from the U.S. government to halt sales of some products from China to Russia.
However, Nvidia added that the U.S. government has authorized exports of its H100 integrated circuits and it has authorized both A100 and H100 order fulfillment and logistics through the company's Hong Kong facility through September 1, 2023.
Earlier this month, Bank of America listed Intel as one of its new ideas in its Alpha Surprise screen quantitative portfolio strategy.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3881279-china-will-not-invade-taiwan-within-the-next-five-years-intel-ceo-predicts
Here is Georgie boy's take on China Vs Taiwan:
China's first step after taking back Taiwan would be to embark on a brainwashing exercise via reeducation camps!
More than a show: China’s exercises could help it practise an invasion
NEW YORK — A day after Ms Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, celebrating it as a bulwark of democracy, China launched three days of military exercises around the island, during which its forces may press in closer than ever, honing their abilities to blockade it.
A barrage of Chinese propaganda said the drills, which started at midday Thursday (Aug 4), would serve as punishment for Ms Pelosi’s visit, and as a shock-and-awe deterrent against opponents of Beijing’s claims to the self-ruled island.
But more than that, the six exercise zones that the People’s Liberation Army has marked out in seas off Taiwan — one nudging less than 10 miles (16km) off its southern coast — could give Chinese forces valuable practise, should they one day be ordered to encircle and attack the island.
“Previously, the Chinese Communists carried out military exercises at a distance, now they’ve become close-up,” Mr Chang Yan-ting, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said in an interview.
“The Chinese military exercises around Taiwan will put our national military in a very dangerous position,” he said. “They’re already at our doorstep.”
China’s leader, Mr Xi Jinping, has said that he hopes to secure eventual unification with Taiwan through peaceful steps. But like his predecessors, he has not ruled out force, and China’s military buildup has reached a point where some military commanders and analysts think an invasion is an increasingly plausible, though still highly risky, scenario. The exercises could help Chinese forces test their readiness for that.
“They’re definitely going to use this as an excuse to do something that helps them prepare for a possible invasion,” said Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University who studies China’s military and its potential to attack Taiwan.
“It’s not just about the messaging,” she said. “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex manoeuvres that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.”
It remains unclear how close Chinese forces will come to Taiwan during the exercises. In one possible sign of what to expect, China’s Liberation Army Daily said Thursday that the Eastern Theater Command was holding its own practise operations that included the navy, air force and rocket force, and were focused on “joint enclosure and control”, assaults on sea and land, and air domination operations.
Kinmen Island, a Taiwanese-controlled island a little over six miles off China’s coast, reported that on Wednesday night, flying objects of unclear origin — probably drones — flew overhead. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said that its website was paralyzed by “denial of service” cyberattacks late Wednesday night.
China is trying to reinforce its influence over Taiwan by upgrading deterrence after the visit by Ms Pelosi, who praised the island’s people for standing strong against Beijing, several Chinese analysts said.
“The tendency of external forces exploiting Taiwan to contain China has become increasingly clear,” Dr Wu Yongping, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing who studies Taiwan, said in written answers to questions. “The Chinese government has adopted some unprecedented military operations in response to this.”
One of the People’s Liberation Army’s designated exercise zones lies off the eastern coast of Taiwan, at the farthest point from the Chinese mainland. When China held intimidating military exercises off Taiwan during a geopolitical crisis 25 years ago, the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, did not go that far.
“It’s an intentional message meant to highlight the PLA’s heightened capacity to project power farther from the Chinese mainland, and it’s a visible signal that China can surround the island,” said Mr Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It will also complicate traffic to and around the island from all sides.”
Global Times, a swaggeringly nationalist Chinese newspaper, raised the possibility of missiles being fired from the mainland into that eastern zone, arcing over Taiwan. “If the Taiwan military responds, the Liberation Army is entirely able to trap the turtle in the jar,” one Chinese commentator, Mr Zhang Xuefeng, told the paper, using a Chinese saying for catching prey with ease.
But Mr Hart said China was unlikely to fire missiles over Taiwan. “That would be extremely escalatory,” he said. “They will more likely fire ship-based or air-launched missiles into that area without flying missiles over the island.”
After decades of tensions and several military crises with China, many on Taiwan have become inured to threats. But even if China does not take the most potentially incendiary steps this time, experts and officials on the island worry that the operations could spark an incident — a collision at sea or in the air, or a misfired missile — that inflames tensions into a full-fledged crisis.
A monitoring service run by the US Naval Institute reported on Monday that a strike group led by the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was in the Philippine Sea, some distance east of Taiwan, and that the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, was also in that area.
“The three sides — U.S., China and Taiwan — should all have some tacit understanding to avoid direct military clashes,” said Mr Chieh Chung, a security analyst with the National Policy Foundation in Taipei. But, he added, “if an incident occurs, it may rapidly heat up, triggering a military clash outside the expectations of each side.”
https://www.todayonline.com/world/more-show-chinas-exercises-could-help-it-practise-invasion-1961226
You mean invade Taiwan in 3024 siboh?
Yeah SURE.