China fired its most direct warning shot yet amid reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may visit Taiwan on Friday, saying that if the speaker's plane is accompanied by U.S. fighter jets, they would not rule out shooting them down.
'If US fighter jets escort Pelosi's plane into Taiwan, it is invasion. The PLA has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi's plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down,' Hu Xijin, a commentator with the Chinese state-affiliated Global Times, wrote on Twitter.
Earlier China warned the U.S. against crossing a 'red line' as it released not-so-subtle warnings against the speaker, which China has reasoned is number three in line in U.S. government, from visiting Taiwan.
The U.S. must be prepared to 'bear all consequences' if Pelosi chooses to visit Taiwan, Chinese foreign minister Zhao Lijian said in a briefing Friday.
National Security Spokesman John Kirby said Friday the Pentagon has seen no indication of a military threat.
'We just don't have any concrete indications of something happening from a military perspective on the Chinese part,' Kirby said.
'There's no reason for it to come to come to blows, to come to increased physical tension. There's no reason for that because there's been no change in American policy,' he added.
The speaker has not confirmed whether she will visit the island democracy during an Asian tour that includes stops in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. In response to a question about the potential Taiwan trip on Friday, Pelosi only said:'I don't talk about my travel because it's a security issue.
The speaker added: 'The President earlier this term talked about a strong emphasis on the Asia Pacific ... and the Congress of the United States will be part of that initiative.'
Still, tensions have mounted over the possibility, with the Chinese navy monitoring the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier's activities in the South China Sea.
The Reagan and its strike group left Singapore on Monday and headed to the South China Sea. The nuclear-powered warship was cruising about 185 km (115 miles) from the contested Fiery Cross Reef on Thursday, according to the South China Post. If the vessels continue in the direction they are headed, they will reach the Taiwan Strait.
Two other vessels - identified by Vietnam-based maritime observer Duan Dang as a Chinese Type 052D destroyer and a Type 054A frigate - were seen 27km and 23km away.
Meanwhile the Chinese navy is conducting military exercises off its southern coast near Guangdong, following exercises in nearby Hainan province.
President Biden said last week the Pentagon thought a Taiwan trip was 'not a good idea.'
'Well, I think that the military thinks it's not a good idea right now,' Biden said in response to a question about Pelosi's reported trip. 'But I don't know what the status of it is.'
Biden and President Xi Jinping spoke on the phone Thursday, where China claimed to have offered a stiff warning ahead of the unconfirmed trip.
Chinese state media released some excerpts from the call, including Xi telling Biden: 'Those who play with fire will only get burnt. Hope the U.S. side can see this clearly.'
Ban on sand exports, fruit and fish imports: How China is punishing Taiwan for hosting Nancy Pelosi
United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, a first by a senior American official in 25 years, has invited the wrath of China.
After landing late on Tuesday, China immediately issued a statement, accusing the US of violating the ‘One China’ principle that maintains Taiwan is part of China.
The statement accused the United States of emboldening “separatist forces” in Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit “has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations and seriously infringes upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.
“These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous,” it added.
Shortly after Pelosi’s plane landed in Taipei around 10:50 pm local time, Beijing announced plans of conducting live-fire drills from 4 August to 7 August across multiple locations. It also deployed 20 military planes into Taiwan’s air defence zone.
However, military strength isn’t the only way China is hitting back at Taiwan over the American Democrat’s visit. The Asian giant has also rolled out curbs on the import of fruit and fish from Taiwan while halting shipments of sand to the island — which is bound to hurt Taiwan’s economy.
Not so sweet!
A little before Pelosi touched down in Taiwan, China suspended imports from hundreds of Taiwanese food factories, including biscuits and pastries.
The Taipei-based United Daily News reported that the ban was imposed on Monday night.
Biscuits and pastries are important trading items between Taiwan and China, including Hong Kong.
About two thirds of exports from Taiwan in 2021 were biscuits and pastries, with a total value of $646 million, Taiwanese media reports. In 2020, the value reached $660 million, accounting for 37 per cent of the total export.
In addition to the suspension of biscuit and pastries from Taiwan, China has also suspended some citrus fruit as well as fish imports — such as chilled white striped hairtail and frozen horse mackerel — from the island nation.
China defended their import of citrus fruits alleging ‘repeated’ detection of excessive pesticide residue.
No Chinese sand for Taiwan
On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it had suspended sand exports in line with unspecified legal provisions. Such a move was based on laws and regulations, the ministry said, without elaborating.
News agency AFP reports that most of Taiwan’s imported sand and gravel, which is used for producing concrete and asphalt, comes from China.
Sand is crucial for Taiwan as a raw material for construction projects, including transport and water conservancy, while it is also used for producing silicon wafers in chip production, which is one of the island’s key manufacturing sectors.
Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong was quoted as telling Al Jazeera that halting sand exports could have a significant impact as construction has become an important source of economic growth during the pandemic.
“I would not say it is a key export from China but it does hurt Taiwan.”
As per official data, Taiwan has imported 15,703 tonnes of natural sand – including silica and quartz sands – from mainland China in the first six months of this year, accounting to $934,000. However, this is just 1.88 per cent of its total import of sand.
Australia has been Taiwan's biggest source for natural sand this year, data revealed, accounting for over 48 per cent of total imports.
More curbs to come?
Trade experts and analysts have said that China’s economic sanctions against Taiwan will ramp up in the days to come.
“If you’re doing something like fish, then it’s more symbolic and not impactful, and now (mainland officials) are looking at how they can move from those symbolic trade barriers to something that’s more impactful,” Zennon Kapron, Singapore-based director of financial industry research firm Kapronasia, told South China Morning Post.
Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at consultancy Trivium China, also agreed, saying more disruptions of agricultural and food trade can be expected in the coming days.
“When diplomatic or trade tensions are running high, Chinese regulators typically take an extremely strict approach to compliance... looking for any issues that can be used to justify a trade ban,” she told AFP.
Liu Yih-jiun, a public affairs professor at Fo Guang University in Taiwan, was also quoted as saying to South China Morning Post that while mainland officials will ramp up curbs, they will avoid hurting Taiwanese people.
“Economically, they are going to do something, but not hurt the Taiwanese people because that will just raise (the sense of) nationalism.”
Incidentally, this isn’t the first time that China is imposing economic curbs on Taiwan. China banned pineapple imports in March 2021, citing the discovery of pests, in a move that was widely seen as politically driven.
Beijing had also suspended imports of pineapples, sugar apples and java apples – the top three fruit exports from Taiwan to mainland China – last year due to the detection of pests.
Beijing has ramped up pressure on Taiwan since President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, as she views the island as a de facto sovereign nation and not part of “one China”.
China-Taiwan trade
Mainland China has been Taiwan’s top export destination; in 2021, 42.3 per cent of all Taiwan’s exports were to Beijing and Hong Kong combined.
In June, Taiwan’s exports to mainland China and Hong Kong reached $15.428 billion, down by 4.5 per cent year on year, while imports rose by 14.6 per cent year on year to $7.911 billion.
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