Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?
As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.
Who is leading national polls?
Harris has been ahead of Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July, as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
The two candidates went head to head in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September that just over 67 million people tuned in to watch.
A majority of national polls carried out in the week after suggested Harris's performance had helped her make some small gains, with her lead increasing from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points just over a week later.
That marginal boost was mostly down to Trump’s numbers though. His average had been rising ahead of the debate, but it fell by half a percentage point in the week afterwards.
You can see those small changes in the poll tracker chart below, with the trend lines showing how the averages have changed and the dots showing the individual poll results for each candidate.
While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.
That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.
Who is winning in swing state polls?
Right now, the polls are very tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds in this election with just one or two percentage points separating the candidates.
That includes Pennsylvania, which is key as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven states and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven states.
One thing to note is that there are fewer state polls than national polls being carried out at the moment so we have less data to go on and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.
But looking at the trends since Harris joined the race does help highlight the states in which she seems to be in a stronger position, according to the polling averages.
In the chart below you can see that Harris has been leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since the start of August - but the margins are still small.
All three had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.
How are these averages created?
The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.
As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).
You can read more about the 538 methodology here.
Can we trust the polls?
At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in swing states - and when the race is that close, it’s very hard to predict winners.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.
Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.
Source: BBC News
Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Plunge With Betting Markets
Over the past few days, the chances of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election have deteriorated noticeably with a number of leading betting companies.
Kalshi, a prediction market website, gave Trump a 64 percent chance of victory at 9 p.m. ET on October 29, against 36 percent for Democratic rival Kamala Harris. However, as of 8 a.m. ET on Friday, Trump's chances had declined to 56 percent, against 44 percent for Harris. With Polymarket, another predictions website where customers can buy and sell shares on events taking place, Trump's odds of winning fell from 67 percent on October 30 to 63 percent on November 1. The same period saw Harris's odds improve from 33 percent to 37 percent.
Polling indicates the 2024 presidential election remains close, with an analysis of recent surveys by election website FiveThirtyEight released on Friday giving Harris a 1.2 point national lead, with 47.9 percent of the vote against 46.8 percent for Trump. However, overall, FiveThirtyEight has Trump as favorite with a 53 percent chance of victory, against 47 percent for Harris. Due to the Electoral College system, a candidate can win the most votes but lose the election overall, as happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
On October 29, bookmakers Bet365, PaddyPower and Betfair all gave Trump odds of 1/2 (66.7 percent) on achieving victory on November 5. However, by November 1, the first two of these had lengthened his odds to 4/7 (63.6 percent) whilst they moved to 8/15 (65.2 percent) with Betfair. Over the same period, Trump's odds on winning went from 8/15 (65.2 percent) to 8/13 (61.9 percent) with Betfred.
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment on Friday by email outside of regular office hours.
In response, on Wednesday, Trump, wearing an orange fluorescent vest, was photographed in a garbage truck featuring his campaign branding during a visit to Wisconsin. Addressing reporters Trump said: "How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden."
The Republican nominee later joked he'd agreed to wear the orange vest, which sparked a viral reaction on social media, after his team told him it made him look thinner.
At a rally in Green Bay, Trump said his initial reaction to the suggestion was "no way," but his team replied: "If you did, you know, it actually makes you look thinner."
The former president continued: "They got me. I said, 'I want to wear it on stage.' I may never wear a blue jacket again.'"
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-chances-winning-election-plunge-betting-markets-1978489
Barbie doll version of Kamala Harris kym?
Mel Gibson Says Kamala Harris Has ‘Got the IQ of a Fence Post,’ Voices Support for Donald Trump
Kamala Harris has decidedly proven to be the more popular presidential candidate among talent in the entertainment industry this election, with recent campaign rally appearances including Bruce Springsteen, Eminem, Julia Roberts and Spike Lee. But Donald Trump can now count a new Hollywood name among his supporters: Mel Gibson. In a new video published by TMZ on Thursday evening, Gibson offered a brief interview to a cameraman while heading toward TSA at an airport.
“I don’t think it’s going to surprise anyone who I vote for,” Gibson said. The cameraman, after some thought, answers with, “I’m gonna guess Trump. Is that a bad guess?”
“I think that’s a pretty good guess,” Gibson responded. “I know what it’ll be like if we let her in. And that ain’t good. Miserable track record. No policies to speak of. She’s got the IQ of a fence post.”
Gibson, one of the most in-demand marquee actors of the end of the 20th century and an Oscar-winning director for “Braveheart,” hasn’t been the most vocal political mind in the press in recent years, though he was documented saluting former President Trump near a UFC match in 2021. The actor’s jab at Harris echoes a frequent line of attack against Harris by Trump, who has been wont to call her a “low IQ” candidate in recent campaign appearances.
Earlier this year, Trump voiced his own love for Gibson on his social media platform Truth Social, sharing a meme featuring images of a clean-cut Gibson and the actor’s more battle-worn look in “Braveheart,” captioning each with “Me voting for Trump” in 2016 and 2024, respectively. He added the line, “Either way, Mel Gibson is GREAT!”
After helming box office triumphs like “The Passion of the Christ” and “Apocalypto,” Gibson largely exited the industry for several years after he was arrested for a DUI in 2006 and was recorded unleashing an anti-Semitic rant. Leaked tapes in 2010 documented further racist remarks by Gibson, including the use of slurs, to his then-girlfriend, Oksana Grigorieva. She later alleged that he was physically abusive.
Since that hiatus, Gibson has continued to work regularly as an actor. He made a prestige comeback in 2016 with the war drama “Hacksaw Ridge,” which landed him an Oscar nomination for directing, as well as nods in best picture and best actor for star Andrew Garfield.
https://variety.com/2024/film/news/mel-gibson-kamala-harris-fence-post-trump-1236190421/
Kamala Harris Gets Bad Sign from New National Poll
Vice President Kamala Harris' narrow lead over former President Donald Trump is shrinking, with a new national poll indicating the 2024 presidential race is tightening just weeks before Election Day.
A recent Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters shows Harris leading Trump by just one percentage point, with 49 percent supporting Harris and 48 percent backing Trump. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points.
The race is now nearly deadlocked, with both candidates splitting the national vote and drawing closer in key battleground states. Harris, who was two points ahead of Trump late last month, is now barely edging out the Republican nominee.
This narrowing gap could be a worrying sign for Harris.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said that while the margin between the candidates has held steady since early September, with Harris maintaining a slight edge, "it is less than Biden's four-point lead in Emerson's 2020 national polls at this time."
The poll also reveals a clear gender divide. Trump leads among men, with 56 percent backing him, compared to 42 percent who support Harris.
Fifty-five percent of women support Harris, while 41 percent say they support Trump.
This gap reflects broader U.S. election trends, where men tend to lean toward Trump, while women tend to favor Harris.
Voter sentiment also remains deeply polarized, according to the survey.
Among those who have already made up their minds, 80 percent said they decided who they were voting for more than a month ago. Early deciders tend to favor Trump (52 percent), while those deciding more recently favor Harris (60 percent).
Three percent of voters are still undecided, and although that's a small percentage, it could still shift the outcome of the election, especially in such a close race. Kimball noted that while undecided voters slightly lean toward Harris, the poll's margin of error means their final choice could tip the scales either way.
A Good Week for Trump
This shrinking gap is especially troubling for Harris, given how past elections have played out.
As Kimball pointed out, Joe Biden had a stronger lead over Trump at this stage in the 2020 election, which provided a buffer heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Similarly, Hillary Clinton had a significant edge over Trump in 2016, before Trump made a dramatic comeback in the final weeks before the election.
On Thursday, Nate Silver's forecast confirmed the momentum shifting toward Trump, noting that his chances of winning are at their highest since August. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump's favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Silver's latest projections show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris' 49.5 percent — despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-trump-lead-shrinks-new-poll-1971354
Trump is ‘fascist to the core,’ Milley says in Woodward book
Retired Gen. Mark A. Milley warned that former president Donald Trump is a “fascist to the core” and “the most dangerous person to this country” in new comments voicing his mounting alarm at the prospect of the Republican nominee’s election to another term, according to a forthcoming book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward.
Milley, 66, served for more than a year as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump before continuing in the role under President Joe Biden.
Upon stepping down in September 2023 after more than 40 years in the military, Milley laid out his apparent concerns about Trump in a pointed retirement speech. “We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, to a tyrant or dictator or wannabe dictator,” he said.
Woodward’s new book, “War,” due out Tuesday, follows Milley in the years after the Trump administration as he wrestles with escalating fears over the president he once served.
Milley was a source for Woodward’s 2021 book, “Peril,” sharing his worries about Trump’s mental stability and national security decisions, according to excerpts of his new book. Upon seeing Woodward again at a reception in March 2023, he told the author that his concerns had grown more dire.
“I glimpsed it when I talked to you back — for ‘Peril,’ but I now know it. I now know it,” he said.
“No one has ever been as dangerous to this country as Donald Trump,” the general told Woodward. “Now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country.”
By the following year, Milley was receiving a “nonstop barrage of death threats” that he attributed to Trump’s political rhetoric and his fixation on retribution for his perceived enemies, Woodward writes.
After retiring, Milley installed bulletproof glass and blast-proof curtains at his home.
He also fears being recalled to uniform to be court-martialed “for disloyalty,” should Trump win against Vice President Kamala Harris in November, Woodward writes.
“He is a walking, talking advertisement of what he’s going to try to do,” Milley warned former colleagues, according to the book, in reference to a 2020 Oval Office meeting with Milley and former defense secretary, Mark T. Esper, in which Trump threatened to court-martial two military officers, Stanley McChrystal and William H. McRaven, who had been critical of the president after retiring.
“I will order them back to active duty and then I will court-martial them!” Trump yelled, according to Woodward. Esper wrote a similar account of the meeting in his own 2022 book.
“He’s saying it and it’s not just him, it’s the people around him,” Milley told colleagues.
Milley, who formerly served as chief of staff of the Army, had a strained 16-month tenure in the Trump administration. In 2020, after the police killing of George Floyd, he joined the president and other top administration officials to appear outside a church for a photo opportunity in Washington, after Trump had ordered demonstrators be removed from Lafayette Square near the White House.
Milley later apologized for being there. “My presence in that moment, and in that environment, created the perception of the military involved in domestic politics,” he said at the time.
Another clash came after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, when Milley called his then-counterpart in the Chinese government, Gen. Li Zuocheng, to reassure him that the country and its international relations would remain stable.
“My task at that time was to de-escalate,” Milley told the Senate Armed Services Committee in testimony to Congress later that year. “My message again was consistent: calm, steady, de-escalate. We are not going to attack you.”
Afterward, Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform that if Milley was giving China “a heads up on the thinking of the President of the United States,” it would amount to “an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!”
Numerous national security officials, retired military leaders and Republicans have announced their support for Harris, according to a tally by The Post.
Milley could not be reached for comment Saturday, and the Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/10/12/mark-milley-donald-trump-fascist/
Exclusive: Harris' lead over Trump narrows to 46% vs 43%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris led Republican Donald Trump by a marginal three percentage points - 46% to 43% - as the two remain locked in a close race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The four-day poll completed on Monday showed Trump, who had trailed Harris by six points in a Sept 20-23 Reuters/Ipsos poll, was the preferred candidate for a range of economic issues and that some voters might be swayed by his claims that immigrants in the country illegally are prone to crime, assertions that have been largely discredited by academics and think tanks.
The poll had a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
Respondents rated the economy as the top issue facing the country, and some 44% said Trump had the better approach on addressing the "cost of living," compared to 38% who picked Harris.
Among a range of economic issues the next president should address, some 70% of respondents said the cost of living would be the most important, with only tiny shares picking the job market, taxes or "leaving me better off financially."
Trump had more support than Harris in each of those areas as well, although voters by a margin of 42% to 35% thought Harris was the better candidate to address the gap between wealthy and average Americans.
Trump appeared buoyed by widespread concerns over immigration, currently at its highest level in America in over a century. Some 53% of voters in the poll said they agreed with a statement that "immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety," compared to 41% who disagreed. Voters had been more closely divided on the question in a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, when 45% agreed and 46% disagreed.
At campaign rallies all year, Trump has called attention to crimes committed by immigrants in the country illegally. While there is little data about the immigration status of criminals, studies have generally found that immigrants are not more likely than native-born Americans to engage in criminality.
Harris has led Trump in each of the six Reuters/Ipsos polls on their matchup since she entered the race in late July. The latest poll showed Harris up two percentage points - 47% to 45% - among the voters who appeared most likely to cast ballots in November. About two-thirds of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election, according to an estimate by the Pew Research Center.
Voters trusted the mental acuity of Harris above that of Trump in the latest poll, with 55% agreeing with a statement that she was "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 46% who said the same of Trump.
While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos polls give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those battleground states, with many results within the margins of error.
Harris entered the race after Democratic President Joe Biden ended his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the front-runner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,272 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 1,076 registered voters. Among these, 969 were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-lead-over-trump-narrows-46-vs-43-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-10-08/
Trump says US will go to hell if he loses presidential election
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump stated that the United States will "go to hell" if he loses the November election, News.Az reports citing TASS .
"Look, we gotta win, and if we don’t win, this country’s going to hell," he said, The Guardian reported. "You know, there’s an expression, this could be the last election we ever have, and it’s an expression that I really believe, and I believe that this could be the last election we ever have."
US businessman Elon Musk earlier said the upcoming US presidential election could be the last for the country if Trump doesn’t reclaim the White House. According to Musk, if Democrat Kamala Harris wins, illegal immigrants will keep coming, become citizens and get the right to vote in the next elections. With the votes of these immigrants, the Democratic Party will be beyond any competition four years later, so the only choice will be among Democratic nominees at the party’s primaries, the businessman said.
The US will hold a presidential election on November 5. Incumbent US President Joe Biden was expected to run on the Democratic Party ticket, but after his disastrous performance at the June debate with Trump, he decided to quit the race and instead supported the nomination of his Vice President Kamala Harris. Her candidacy was later formally endorsed at a Democratic Party Convention.
https://news.az/news/trump-says-us-will-go-to-hell-if-he-loses-presidential-election
America is fucked big time if that desi cunt gets voted into the White House. The whole country will stink to high hell and this stench shall reverberate for many decades to come.
2024 US Presidential Election: Melania doesn’t want to be ‘first lady 24/7’ if Donald Trump wins - report
Melania Trump has reportedly made a deal with her husband Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 United States presidential election. Melania has apparently told the former president that she doesn't want to be a full-time first lady if he gets re-elected as the president.
A Trumpworld insider told the publication that Melania has "made a deal" with her husband that if he wins the presidency she will not have to be on "first lady duty 24/7".
According to the report, Melania is planning to spend a part of every month in New York City with her son, Barron Trump, amid speculations that he will attend New York University in the fall.
A source told the publication, "She's a hands-on mother, and is already planning to spend part of every month — and potentially every week — in NYC."
While mentioning Barron and the need for an additional adjustment to college life in case his father wins, the source added, "Barron has never been completely on his own before — and with the added stress of him being both a freshman in college and potentially the son of a president in a predominantly Democratic city, [Melania] wants to be close."
"The added attention he'll get if his father is president worries Melania who is also concerned about the reaction at his school over Barron's ever-present Secret Service," the sources said, further adding that Melania is an "extremely protective mother".
The source said that Melania "feels safe in NYC and in Trump Tower herself, and it's Barron's home, and that's why she wants him to go to school in NYC."
"She can provide both emotional and physical support by being close. Everyone remembers how she delayed moving to Washington, DC, until Barron finished school," the source added.
Trump's criminal trial was 'very hard' on Melania
Trump last month said that his historic criminal trial was "very hard" on his wife Melania, who was a notable absentee from the close family members who attended court in support of the former president.
In an interview aired on Fox, Trump said, "She's fine, but I think it's very hard for her. She has to read all this crap."
"I think it's probably in many ways, it's tougher on my family than it is on me," he added.
A jury convicted Trump on all 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in the final stages of the 2016 presidential campaign to cover up a sex scandal involving porn star Stormy Daniels.
It was the first criminal conviction of a former president in US history and means Trump is now running in the November 5 presidential election as a felon.
https://www.wionews.com/world/2024-us-presidential-election-melania-doesnt-want-to-be-first-lady-247-if-donald-trump-wins-report-736754
TRUMP WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL. MAGAGA!!!!!!