Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?
As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.
Who is leading national polls?
Harris has been ahead of Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July, as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
The two candidates went head to head in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September that just over 67 million people tuned in to watch.
A majority of national polls carried out in the week after suggested Harris's performance had helped her make some small gains, with her lead increasing from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points just over a week later.
That marginal boost was mostly down to Trump’s numbers though. His average had been rising ahead of the debate, but it fell by half a percentage point in the week afterwards.
You can see those small changes in the poll tracker chart below, with the trend lines showing how the averages have changed and the dots showing the individual poll results for each candidate.
While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.
That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.
Who is winning in swing state polls?
Right now, the polls are very tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds in this election with just one or two percentage points separating the candidates.
That includes Pennsylvania, which is key as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven states and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven states.
One thing to note is that there are fewer state polls than national polls being carried out at the moment so we have less data to go on and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.
But looking at the trends since Harris joined the race does help highlight the states in which she seems to be in a stronger position, according to the polling averages.
In the chart below you can see that Harris has been leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since the start of August - but the margins are still small.
All three had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.
How are these averages created?
The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.
As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).
You can read more about the 538 methodology here.
Can we trust the polls?
At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in swing states - and when the race is that close, it’s very hard to predict winners.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.
Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.
Source: BBC News
Inside Trump’s latest flurry of controversial Cabinet picks
In the days after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, allies described his transition effort as far more disciplined than his first post-victory period in 2016.
Then, a 24-hour stretch — that started with Trump’s selection of Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defense secretary on Tuesday night, included tapping former Hawaii Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence on Wednesday, and culminated with his selection of bomb-throwing Florida congressman Matt Gaetz as attorney general later that day — turned that perception on its head.
Their selections — which followed Trump finding the other candidates he’d interviewed boring, and searching for firebrands — represented the ascendancy of the president-elect’s “Make America Great Again” orbit over the more traditional Republican establishment.
And they underscored the quality the president-elect values most as he prepares to return to the Oval Office: Loyalty.
Trump’s latest round of Cabinet announcements stunned much of Washington. But the hair-raising nature of Trump’s picks was intended to be a feature, not a bug, say people briefed by the team.
“People being in a state of shock was the goal, that’s exactly what the MAGA gang wants,” said one Trump ally, requesting anonymity to discuss private deliberations with the president-elect’s team. “They want people who are a total challenge to the system.”
Trump on Wednesday visited Washington, where he met privately for nearly two hours with President Joe Biden and visited lawmakers. On Capitol Hill, Republicans were gathering to choose the party’s leaders for the next Congress — with House Speaker Mike Johnson retaining his gavel, and South Dakota Sen. John Thune winning a three-way race to lead the Senate GOP.
But the real action has been at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, where the president-elect is surrounding himself with political allies old and new, such as Elon Musk — who was in the room Wednesday when Trump met with House Republicans in DC. Trump joked that he couldn’t get rid of the billionaire Tesla and SpaceX pioneer whom he’d tapped as the co-leader of what he’s calling the new Department of Government Efficiency.
“He loves Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said of Musk.
Unlike Trump Tower in 2016, where candidates strode by a rope line of reporters before stepping into the elevator to meet Trump, there are no cameras at Mar-a-Lago to capture the gauntlet of candidates traveling in to kiss Trump’s ring. Between the conservative think tanks and Trump’s own transition members, extensive work had already been done on personnel and day-one policies this time around – compared to Trump ripping up former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 2016 transition playbook and starting from scratch.
Trump’s transition team includes close to 100 people, with some working at Mar-a-Lago and others at the campaign office in Palm Beach and in Washington. The team develops lists of candidates for key posts, runs through the pros and cons with the president-elect and then whittles those lists down for interviews. Some of the names of top contenders are handed off to research firms to be vetted.
And then there is Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wiles, whose iron grip on Trump is said to be among the key qualities that landed her the job. Sources close to the transition said some of the unpredictable picks shouldn’t belie the discipline Wiles has instilled.
“The discipline is that none of it leaked,” said one source close to the transition, referring to the Hegseth, Gabbard and Gaetz selections.
Inside Trump’s transition
Trump’s transition effort had begun with relatively orthodox choices — including Wiles, who led Trump’s campaign, as chief of staff. CNN reported on Monday Trump was likely to tap Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state – an announcement he made official on Wednesday.
But Trump, frustrated by his short list of potential Pentagon chiefs, chose Hegseth, a combat veteran and strident Trump promoter in his role as a Fox News host, who had abruptly been called to travel to Mar-a-Lago on Monday and announced as Trump’s choice for defense secretary after they met the next day.
Then, on Wednesday, Trump announced Gabbard, who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and left the party in 2022, for director of national intelligence — another nomination sure to set off a major confirmation battle.
Gabbard, who served in the Army National Guard before joining the US Army Reserve, like Trump, has expressed an isolationist approach to foreign policy. And like Trump, she has frequently appeared to take positions more favorable to foreign leaders widely considered not just American adversaries, but in some cases, murderers, including the presidents of Syria and Russia.
Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon told CNN he had taken Gabbard to meet with Trump about joining his first administration in 2016.
“It did not work out then, but now we have one of the strongest America First proponents nominated to take charge of an out-of-control and destructive intelligence community,” Bannon said.
To be sure, MAGA favorites have been cast aside for other roles. Donald Trump Jr. favored longtime Trump loyalist Richard Grenell to serve as secretary of state, despite questions about whether Grenell could be confirmed.
Trump believed he owed a big job to Rubio, who was runner-up for the vice presidential nomination and campaigned closely — and bilingually — with Trump in the final stretch, especially after the Florida Republican stood quietly by as comedian Tony Hinchcliffe denigrated Puerto Ricans at a Madison Square Garden rally. Rubio later had to field questions on the matter from reporters, whom he told it “wasn’t a good idea” for Hinchliffe to have been at the rally.
As the final considerations for the State Department were being discussed, Vice President-elect JD Vance, who at other times has urged the team not to pick a “neocon,” sources said, was quiet when it came to Grenell’s defense. A source close to Vance denied that characterization.
How Trump chose Gaetz
Multiple sources close to Trump have described the president-elect as feeling he had a mandate to deliver on his campaign-trail promises — including dismantling the Justice Department — after winning the popular vote against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Much like his defense secretary pick, Trump had also grown frustrated with his options for attorney general. He had considered some candidates, including Mark Paoletta and Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, but “wasn’t blown away by anyone,” and none of them “checked the all the boxes,” a source familiar with Trump’s transition effort said. Another source said Trump was looking for more of a firebrand.
The role of attorney general has long been viewed by Trump as one of, if not the, most important positions he would fill. When he left office in January 2021, he privately griped that his biggest regret was who he had chosen to lead the Justice Department — specifically referring to his attorneys general Jeff Sessions and William Barr, both of whom, by the end of his term, he viewed as disloyal.
Now, Trump plans to scrap the Justice Department’s tradition of operating independently from White House political pressure. He has also been given reassurance by the Supreme Court’s recent decision that presidents receive immunity for official acts. Trump has told those working on the transition that this time, he wants to surround himself with people who will carry out his agenda and those he can trust — with loyalty remaining the leading prerequisite.
Gaetz — a longtime supporter of Trump who two sources familiar with his plans said spent several days at Mar-a-Lago over the past week — fit that bill, even though he is a controversial figure loathed by many Republicans on Capitol Hill in part because of his role in ousting former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in 2023 and throwing the party into weeks of chaos.
Those sources added that a slate of deputy attorneys general who weren’t expected to have reputations as controversial as Gaetz would follow, and would be tasked with executing the day-to-day operations of the department.
Trump is seriously considering naming his lead attorney Todd Blanche to serve as the next deputy attorney general, the second-highest position in the Justice Department, according to two people familiar with his thinking.
Blanche has represented Trump for the last 18 months and defended him during his criminal hush money trial in Manhattan earlier this year. Because of his proximity to Trump and Trump’s trust in him, it was widely expected inside the president-elect’s inner circle that if he won, Blanche would likely follow him into the federal government.
One person close to the matter cautioned that no final decisions have been made.
Confirmation battle looms
In choosing Gaetz, Trump is ignoring concerns about the Florida Republican’s ability to be confirmed by the Senate, which stem from his move to oust McCarthy and an ethics probe into him.
Gaetz opted to resign from Congress on Wednesday — a decision that could prevent the House Ethics Committee from releasing a long-awaited report that was expected to be made public as soon as Friday.
The committee had been probing allegations that Gaetz may have “engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper gifts, dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship, and sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct.” Gaetz has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, including ever having sex with a minor or paying for sex.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said Gaetz’s resignation will allow Florida to fill his seat close to the start of the new Congress on January 3, when Republicans will have a slim majority.
“We’re grateful for that,” Johnson said.
But selections like Gaetz will soon test the willingness of Republicans on Capitol Hill to go along with Trump’s wishes.
There are already signs a heated confirmation battle is brewing.
Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski called Gaetz an “unserious candidate” to helm the Justice Department. Maine Sen. Susan Collins, another Republican, said she was “shocked” by the nomination. Asked if Gaetz can win confirmation, Texas Sen. John Cornyn responded: “We’ll find out, won’t we.”
Trump has even floated circumventing the Senate entirely by filling Cabinet posts through recess appointments. Thune said Wednesday he would “explore all options” to confirm Trump’s picks.
“We always allow the president to have the benefit of the doubt, but we still have to do our role in terms of due diligence,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, another South Dakota Republican.
He would not say whether he would vote to confirm Gaetz, or predict whether Gaetz would win the Senate’s approval.
“I just don’t have a magic wand in front of me, or, for that matter, a crystal ball,” Rounds said. “I can’t tell you that.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/14/politics/trump-controversial-cabinet-picks/index.html