Singaporean Minister for Transport and Minister-in-charge for Trade Relations S. Iswaran delivers the opening address at the Changi Aviation Summit in Singapore on May 17, 2022. (AFP/Roslan Rahman)
Nearly all the Singaporeans I’ve met have admitted that despite the excellent livelihoods provided by the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), they often envy Indonesians for the exciting democratic politics they have enjoyed since the fall of dictator Soeharto in 1998. Singaporeans live much better than Indonesians in so many aspects of life but lack some basic freedoms.
Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, who was also cofounder of the PAP, ruled Singapore from 1959 to 1990. His success in elevating the city-state from a developing world to an advanced economy during his three-decade rule has been recognized internationally. When he stepped down in 1990, his deputy, Goh Chok Tong, took over. In 2004, PM Goh handed the baton to Lee’s son, Lee Hsien Loong, who has led Singapore since.
It is almost certain that PM Lee will be succeeded by his deputy Lawrence Wong after the 2025 elections, unless the PAP performs poorly. Isn’t it boring when you can’t bet on the question of succession? Isn’t it unexciting to live under a monotonous regime, where everything is planned and controlled, for 64 years?
Unsurprisingly, many feel fatigued and bored.
The political dynamics ahead of elections in Indonesia are totally different from those in Singapore. In Indonesia, for example, nobody knows who will win the Feb. 14, 2024, presidential election. Even the three presumptive candidates are not 100 percent assured a spot in the running until the final day of registration in November.
On the contrary, Singaporeans already know with some measure of certainty that Wong will be their next leader, even though the elections are still two years away. Singaporean politics is scripted like a book. There is no chance for surprises that might wreck your nerves.
In the race for the presidency in Indonesia, the presumptive opposition candidate, Anies Baswedan, a former Jakarta governor, is building an image as an antithesis of incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, while his potential contenders Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo both represent a continuation of Jokowi. Wong will never be the antithesis of his predecessor.
Something different is happening now in Singapore, however. The ruling party has been rocked by three scandals: two corruption cases and a love affair. It is certainly shocking for the PAP and upsetting for Singaporean citizens, but for Indonesians this is just routine.
According to local media, Transportation Minister S. Iswaran and prominent hotel tycoon Ong Beng Seng were allegedly involved in a bribery scandal and have come under the scrutiny of the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB). The two were recently arrested but released on bail.
“I have instructed minister Iswaran to take a leave of absence until these investigations are completed,” PM Lee said.
This is the most shocking graft scandal to hit the ruling party in decades. In 1986, then-minister for national development Teh Cheang Wan was investigated for accepting bribes. He died before he was indicted.
The ruling party is also in the spotlight after Law and Home Minister Kasiviswanathan Shanmugam and Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan faced allegations of abuse of power and conflict of interest. PM Lee dismissed the allegations and his trust in the two senior ministers remains intact.
The government opened an investigation after the opposition questioned in May why Balakrishnan and Shanmugam were able to rent two of Singapore’s government-owned colonial-era bungalows along the Ridout Road.
The Straits Times has reported that PM Lee also asked Parliament Speaker Tan Chuan Jin “to go” after the latter’s extramarital relationship with fellow PAP politician Cheng Li Hui made the headlines.
The speaker is married with two children, while Cheng reportedly is unmarried. The two tendered their resignations on July 17.
nI February, Lee had reprimanded Tan and instructed him to break up his love affair, but to no avail. The city-state was too small to hide their forbidden love, and PM Lee received new evidence that the two politicians’ love remained burning.
PM Lee has assured the public that the errant politicians will face justice, a promise that in Indonesia will be an endless source of jokes. Many top Indonesian politicians found guilty of graft have received light sentences or generous remissions and have been allowed to reenter politics.
The PAP has transformed the tiny island state into one of the world’s wealthiest and least corrupt nations, and its passport is the world’s most powerful traveling tool. After 54 years in power, the party is now facing the most difficult situation in its history: how to deal with people’s boredom and fatigue. It is not easy, because people simply want something new. They want change even though the government has provided them with a semblance of perfection.
Singapore ranked fifth after Denmark, Finland, New Zealand and Norway in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index released by Transparency International. Indonesia placed 110th out of the 180 countries surveyed.
With gross domestic product per capita of US$72,794, Singapore is the sixth wealthiest nation in the world, after Luxemburg, Bermuda, Ireland, Switzerland and Norway. By comparison, Indonesia’s GDP per capita is $4,292, and it is struggling to escape from the middle-income trap.
The world’s most powerful passport in 2023 belongs to Singapore, allowing its holders to travel to 192 countries without a visa or with a visa on arrival. The Indonesian passport currently ranks 74th according to the Guide Passport Ranking Index.
When Wong eventually takes office, he will very likely continue the policies of PM Lee and the country’s previous leaders. The system is much tidier than Indonesia’s but boring, at best. The same system has lasted 64 years now, and many, especially young voters, long for change.
The biggest headache for PM Lee and the PAP is how to respond to the boredom and fatigue of the people who are close to saying “enough is enough” with the ruling party.
We in Indonesia are luckier because we have the right to make changes. We can directly elect our leaders, although we may not know if our choice will really contribute to our livelihoods.
SOURCE: THE JAKARTA POST
Singapore political drama exposes frailty of Lee's succession plan
SINGAPORE -- The ruling People's Action Party of Singapore is walking on thin ice in light of a series of political controversies involving high-profile politicians who were expected to have played a big role in the country's next chapter of leadership.
From a graft probe on a cabinet minister to the resignation of a senior official over an extramarital affair, the rare political drama highlights the challenges Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong faces in executing his carefully tailored succession plan.
On Wednesday, the city-state's Parliament convened for the first time since the political incidents surfaced, prompting Lee to explain the issues.
"Such incidents involving ministers are rare, and there is no rule or precedent on how to effect an interdiction on a political office holder," Lee told Parliament, referring to the case of Transport Minister S. Iswaran, who was arrested by the country's anti-corruption agency on July 11.
Lee said Iswaran, who was later released on bail, has been suspended from duties, and his monthly pay was cut to 8,500 Singapore dollars ($6,300) until further notice, well below the benchmark level of a minister's monthly salary of SG$55,000.
The anti-corruption agency has not disclosed the nature of the investigation and has not charged or convicted Iswaran. Lee said that investigations were "still ongoing" and that he was unable to provide more details on the case "so as not to prejudice the investigations in any way."
Shortly after Iswaran's arrest, Tan Chuan-Jin, a former cabinet member once touted as an up-and-coming member of the next generation of leaders, stepped down as speaker of Parliament and left the PAP over an affair with another party member.
Lee said on Wednesday that in hindsight, after learning of the affair between the two PAP members in November 2020, he should have "forced the issue sooner." He added that he had "placed much weight on protecting their families, perhaps too much."
The party's unbroken rule over nearly six decades has been largely credited to its track record of the country's development and its clean image. But as the economy slows, coupled with other challenges, including an aging population and geopolitical tensions, the party's foundations have grown weaker, and the collapse of its clean image would be a blow to its administration.
"Singaporeans don't feel that they are going forward economically or socially and haven't done [so] for a decade or more," said Michael Barr, an associate professor at Australia's Flinders University. "The image of good, stable and effective government overseen by good people is now in serious doubt."
"One immediate political impact is that the government's preparations for a very early general election have undoubtedly died in a ditch," Barr told Nikkei Asia, adding that the current Parliament could run its full five-year term until late 2025.
As the PAP holds nearly 90% of the seats, a change of government is highly unlikely in the next general election. But in the last election in 2020, the opposition won a record 10 seats, reflecting voters' declining confidence in the ruling party.
The following general election is particularly crucial for the PAP, as it is expected to coincide with a carefully tailored succession project by Lee, who has been the country's third prime minister since 2004. Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is expected to succeed Lee as prime minister as the leader of the PAP's "fourth-generation" or "4G" team.
Meredith Weiss, a professor of political science at the State University of New York in Albany, said Lee has sought to boost confidence in the ascendant 4G leadership over the years. But "none of these incidents can help" the succession plan.
"Were the 4G leaders more overtly different from Lee et al., or were their ascent more organic -- driven less through opaque party mechanisms than via popular mandate -- the new guard might be able to make a case for renewal and change," Weiss said. "But indeed, it is the very promise of reliable continuity that sustains the PAP's still-strong mandate."
Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, said the timing of the succession will depend on how Lee and the next generation of leaders handle the political setbacks.
"Should the fourth-generation leader under Wong demonstrate initiative and decisiveness in ownership," Chong said, "and putting forward a reform plan that addresses the underlying issues leading to the challenges that have come up, there could be greater confidence in their leadership."
"That could pave the way for the fourth-generation leaders to take over," he added.
In a BBC interview last week, Wong said the recent incidents are "a setback" for the ruling party and the government. "I have no doubt that we will reflect, learn from these experiences, make our system better and continue to uphold the trust that Singaporeans have in the elected government and in our system of government," he said.
"The PAP has taken a hit" over the issue, Lee said in Parliament on Wednesday. He tried to reassure that the PAP, including the future leaders, will handle the matter in accordance with the law even if it may be "politically embarrassing and painful to the party."
"This is my approach, and I'm confident it will be my successor's approach, too," Lee said. "And this is how we will keep Singapore safe, strong and prosperous for many years to come."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Singapore-political-drama-exposes-frailty-of-Lee-s-succession-plan